India-Canada relations have been navigating a complex relationship over the past few years.
Marked by diplomatic tensions, security disagreements, and a serious rift over extremist activities. However, recent developments in 2026 point to a gradual reset of bilateral ties, with renewed security cooperation, potential energy deals, and growing interests in economic engagement.
This article covers everything you need to know about the current state of India–Canada relations, including the Uranium deal, the role of NSA Ajit Doval, the progress in security work plans, and evolving diplomatic and trade prospects.
Historical Background: Strained Relations and the Nijjar Crisis
India–Canada relations reached a low point in September 2023, when then-Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau publicly alleged that Indian agents were involved in the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Sikh separatist in British Columbia. Canada’s claim triggered a major diplomatic confrontation — with India rejecting the allegations as “absurd” and “motivated.”
The fallout saw mutual expulsions of diplomats, withdrawal of high commissioners, and suspension of key talks, including those on trade and comprehensive economic partnership agreements.
This diplomatic freeze marked one of the most turbulent periods in the bilateral relationship in recent decades, overshadowing long-standing people-to-people links, business ties, and diasporic connections.
Why India–Canada Relations Matter
Before we dive into the latest developments, it’s important to understand why this bilateral relationship is significant:
- Diaspora Influence: Canada has one of the world’s largest Indian diasporas, especially in provinces like British Columbia and Ontario, influencing both domestic politics and bilateral perceptions.
- Economic Engagement: India and Canada have untapped potential in trade, services, agriculture, energy, critical minerals, and technology.
- Strategic Interests: In an era of evolving geopolitics, both countries share interests in counter-terrorism, cybersecurity, clean energy, and Indo-Pacific stability.
Given these overlapping interests, the recent diplomatic thaw has attracted global attention, particularly the prospects of a long-term uranium supply deal and renewed security cooperation.
Uranium Deal and Strategic Energy Cooperation
📌 What’s on the Table?
A major development in 2026 — and a focal point of renewed engagement — is the prospective long-term uranium supply agreement between India and Canada. Multiple reliable reports indicate that the two countries are poised to conclude a **10-year uranium supply pact valued at approximately US $2.8 billion.
If finalized, this deal would see Canada’s Cameco Corporation supplying uranium to India over a decade, supporting India’s expanding civilian nuclear energy programme.
📌 Why It Matters Strategically
- Energy Security for India: India is rapidly expanding its nuclear power capacity as part of its transition to cleaner energy sources. A reliable long-term supply of uranium from Canada would enhance fuel security for its reactors and reduce dependence on other sources.
- Economic Gains for Canada: As one of the world’s largest uranium producers, Canada stands to gain from increased exports, diversified customer bases, and deepened bilateral ties.
- Geopolitical Balance: For Canada, strengthening ties with India provides a strategic balance in its foreign relations, especially amid evolving dynamics with the United States and China.
📌 When Could the Deal Be Finalized?
Most reports suggest the uranium pact is likely to be a key outcome of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s expected visit to India in March 2026.
This visit — Carney’s first to India as prime minister — could also catalyse a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between the two countries.
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Security Cooperation: Ajit Doval’s Visit and Shared Work Plan
🛡️ Ajit Doval Meets Canadian Counterpart
In early February 2026, India’s National Security Adviser (NSA) Ajit Doval visited Ottawa and held bilateral talks with Canada’s National Security and Intelligence Adviser, Nathalie G. Drouin. Both sides agreed on a “shared work plan” to enhance cooperation on national security and law enforcement.
This is significant because it marks a practical step beyond high-level diplomatic rhetoric, focusing on actionable collaboration.
📌 Key Elements of the Shared Work Plan
According to official statements, the shared work plan will guide cooperation on:
- National security and law enforcement issues
- Establishing security and law enforcement liaison officers
- Streamlined information sharing on cross-border concerns
- Cooperative action on issues like illegal drug flows, particularly fentanyl, and transnational criminal networks
- Cybersecurity policy cooperation and coordinated cyber threat responses
📌 Why This Security Dialogue is Important
- Restoring Trust: After the diplomatic freeze, this security cooperation framework signals a mutual desire to rebuild institutional trust.
- Addressing Transnational Crime: By establishing liaison officers and formalizing information exchange, both countries aim to tackle shared security challenges more effectively.
- Combating Extremism: Discussions reportedly included plans to focus on extremist elements, especially those linked to violent Khalistani networks, which have been a point of tension in bilateral relations.
📌 Doval’s Perspective
Ajit Doval’s approach in these talks underscores a firm but pragmatic strategy. Rather than letting political disputes derail all cooperation, Doval is steering bilateral relations toward institutional levels of engagement where practical issues like law enforcement and security take precedence.
His emphasis on a shared work plan reflects India’s intent to anchor ties on mutual interests and operational collaboration.
Diplomatic Reset and High-Level Engagements
📌 PM Modi and PM Carney’s Interaction
The diplomatic thaw began gaining momentum after Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney met on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in June 2025. They agreed to resume ministerial and working-level engagements on critical areas like AI, clean energy, and trade.
📌 Return of High Commissioners
Following this leadership dialogue, both India and Canada reinstated their high commissioners — an important symbolic and practical step toward normalization.
📌 Prospect of CEPA Talks
With Carney likely to visit India in March, both sides are expected to restart negotiations on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), which could substantially boost bilateral trade and investment.
This would be a major breakthrough after nearly two years of stalled trade talks.
The Khalistan Issue and Security Concerns
One of the core elements of the diplomatic discord has been the Khalistan issue, rooted in extremist support within Canada. The Nijjar controversy significantly strained ties, and security concerns have remained central in bilateral conversations.
In the recent NSA talks, crime and extremism, especially the threat of violent extremist networks, were central discussion points. Both countries agreed on moving beyond rhetoric toward crackdown efforts against extremism and criminal networks.
This shows how security cooperation is now an essential building block in repairing diplomatic trust.
Economic and Strategic Opportunities Beyond Uranium
While the uranium deal is a headline opportunity, India–Canada ties extend into many other strategic areas:
☑ Clean Energy and Critical Minerals
Both countries have expressed interest in collaborating on critical minerals, clean energy technologies, and resource supply chains that complement India’s energy transition goals.
☑ Technology and AI
During high-level meetings in 2025, leaders highlighted cooperation in artificial intelligence (AI) and other emerging technologies — sectors where both nations see strategic value.
☑ Climate and Sustainability
Environmental cooperation, climate action, and sustainable development partnerships are also part of the broader agenda in diplomatic engagements, as seen in discussions involving Canada’s Foreign Affairs leadership.
Public Perception and Soft Power Dynamics
🇨🇦 Canadian View
Canada’s political landscape is shaped not only by foreign policy but also domestic considerations, including how diaspora communities influence discourse. With Mark Carney as PM, there has been a shift toward engaging India more constructively while balancing domestic security concerns.
🇮🇳 Indian View
India prioritizes non-interference in internal affairs and has been clear in insisting that cooperation must be respectful of sovereignty. India’s diplomacy underlines pragmatic engagement and institutional cooperation, despite political disagreements.
Challenges Ahead: Roadblocks to Full Normalization
Despite the positive momentum, several challenges remain:
⚠ Ongoing Legal Proceedings
Legal cases related to Nijjar’s killing and other extremist violence issues continue in Canada, which could affect diplomatic sensitivities.
⚠ Domestic Political Pressures
Political stakeholders in both countries may use foreign policy issues for internal narratives, affecting stability in bilateral engagement.
⚠ Trust Deficit
Though significantly reduced, there is still lingering mistrust based on past accusations and diplomatic standoffs.
Looking Ahead: What to Expect in 2026
Given current trajectories:
🔹 March 2026: Canadian PM Carney’s Visit to India
This visit is expected to be the defining diplomatic moment of the year, possibly culminating in:
- Signing the 10-year uranium deal
- Advancing CEPA negotiations
- Discussions on technology, energy, and critical minerals
🔹 Expanded Security Cooperation
The shared security work plan and ongoing NSA dialogues suggest deeper institutional collaboration on counter-terrorism, crime, and cybersecurity.
🔹 Trade and Investment Expansion
With CEPA talks restarting, both economies stand to benefit from expanded trade — potentially boosting bilateral trade figures and market access.
Conclusion: A Pragmatic Reset for India–Canada Relations
India and Canada’s relationship in 2026 is at a pivotal moment. From a prolonged diplomatic freeze rooted in mistrust and serious allegations, the two countries are moving toward institutional partnerships, economic cooperation, and strategic engagements that reflect mutual interests.
The potential long-term uranium deal, security cooperation under Ajit Doval’s leadership, and renewed high-level political engagement signal a pragmatic reset rather than a full return to pre-crisis normalcy.
If sustained properly, this renewed engagement could position India and Canada as strategic partners in South Asia–North America connections — balancing diplomatic challenges with real-world cooperation in energy, security, and economic development.
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